Conflict Alerts # 622, 11 April 2024
Shamini Velayutham In the news
On 10 April, US President Joe Biden, in an interview, criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his announcement on the ground invasion of Rafah. He stated: “I think what he's doing is a mistake. I don't agree with his approach.” He added that Gaza should have “total access to all food and medicine” for the next six to eight weeks.
On 9 April, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu re-emphasised his position that the war’s victory depends on a ground military offensive in Rafah. He added: “There is no force in the world that will stop us. There are many forces that are trying to do so, but it will not help since this enemy, after what it did, will never do it again.”
On the same day, in response to Netanyahu’s announcement, the US Department of State spokesperson, Matthew Miller, asserted that the US has not been briefed on Rafah. He stated: “We have made clear to Israel that we think a full-scale military invasion of Rafah would have an enormously harmful effect on those civilians and that it would ultimately hurt Israel’s security.”
On 8 April, following the arrival of the representatives from Israel, Hamas, and the US in Cairo for talks, the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, said that negotiations have reached a “critical point.” The terms were rejected by Hamas as “nothing new.” Katz stated: “We’ve reached a critical point,” adding that “if matters work out, a large number of hostages will return home and then, in stages, everyone. But remember that we are dealing with Hamas and there is not a lot of time. I am more optimistic than I was.”
On 7 April, in Khan Younis, the 98th division of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declared that it had “concluded its mission” and withdrawn from the city. To “recuperate and prepare for future operations,” the division was departing the Gaza Strip. Following the withdrawal, IDF Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi declared that the military was far from ending its operations in the Gaza Strip. He said: “We will not leave any Hamas brigades active in any part of the Gaza Strip. We have plans and will act when we decide.” Subsequently, the Israeli Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, announced that the troops were pulling out of Gaza to get ready for the mission in Rafah. He added that the Israeli forces in Khan Younis were successful in destroying “enemy targets, warehouses, weapons, infrastructures, headquarters and communication rooms.”
Issues at large
First, the state of six months of War in Gaza. Following a horrible attack on Israel by the Hamas on 7 October 2023 and kidnappings, the former began a war targeting the latter in Gaza. At first, the attacks were focused on northern Gaza. After a failed humanitarian pause mediated by Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and the US in November 2023, the IDF started its ground operation in southern Gaza, targeting Khan Younis. The city is the home to many prominent leaders of Hamas. According to the Health Ministry of Palestine, during the last six months, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed. Meanwhile, the Israeli army claims that 600 Israeli soldiers were killed in fighting the Hamas. There were repeated ceasefire talks in Egypt, Qatar, and Washington, but were unsuccessful. Meanwhile, at the United Nations, there were multiple attempts to reach a consensus and to bring a ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas. Despite the efforts of the mediators to secure a truce, and pressure from the international community on Netanyahu’s government, the war continues.
Second, the failed ceasefire attempts. In March, Biden stated that his administration is working towards securing a six-week ceasefire in Gaza starting from 10 March, during the holy month of Ramadan. However, it did not happen. On 22 March, the US proposed a draft resolution at the United Nations, calling for an immediate ceasefire. However, it was ruled out as Russia, Algeria and China voted against the resolution. Although the UNSC passed the ceasefire resolution on 25 March, which aimed at halting the hostilities in Gaza, the Israeli military continued its operations in major cities of Gaza. The renewed call for a ceasefire during negotiations in Egypt is stalled as the mediators are unable to bring the parties to agree.
Third, the state of negotiations between Israel and Hamas aided by regional actors and the US. Qatar, Egypt and the US have invested substantially in bringing the two actors to the table and reached a ceasefire during the last six months. But these talks have failed to reach a common minimum agreement between the two. Hamas is demanding an end to the Israeli operations, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of Palestinians in Israeli jails. Israel wants the release of hostages and the destruction of the Hamas network across Gaza. The negotiations so far have failed to find a common ground.
Fourth, the demographic and strategic importance of Rafah. The town borders Egypt, and according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, its population was around 267,000 in 2022. Since the war began in October 2023, 1.5 million civilians from the rest of Gaza have taken refuge in Rafah. For Israel, after the military operations in the rest of Gaza, Rafah is the last hideout of the Hamas.
In perspective
First, the elusive ceasefire. The recent killing of the Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh’s relatives further complicates the negotiations that are aimed at securing an end to the hostilities. According to the latest reports, Hamas are unable to trace 40 Israeli hostages, while Israel demands the release of the hostages in the first phase of the ceasefire.
Second, impending military operations in Rafah. It would result in a greater number of causalities, leading to a dire humanitarian situation, and complicate the ceasefire negotiations further.